A (Chaotic) Reffective Update

Things got a little chaotic for a while. Now that the number of active and (until recently) new infections is much lower, any outbreaks (like the recent Tönnies case in Gütersloh) have a dramatic effect on R.

[There was a paper showing how the sensitivity of R increased as it was lower, how small changes had large impacts… but now i cant find it. Will update if i come across it again!]

Makes sense, and didn’t seem to bother anyone. The overall trend in Germany is still positive. Locally there are some issues (Neuköln, Berlin, etc) but it looks mostly under control.

Here in Hamburg, over the last month or so, the average is 20 – 30 cases every 7 days. Not great. Not terrible.