I look at this graph and wonder at our arrogance…

It is amazing to me that there are segments of the scientific community (BEST, i’m looking at you!) that were so up their own arses over this. In the end they’ve spent several years producing a result that pretty much shows that the people who knew the field in the first place were right to warn, and if anything, were somewhat cautious in their analysis.

And yet the BBC still has the f’ing nerve to talk about debate… we’re lost, so far fucking lost. It’s over. And, in all likelihood too late. As many of us have been saying for a decade…

Update: hard corals are getting well established in Western Izu. Amazing. In general, the water temps have to stay above 13C year round for this to happen. Pretty much unthinkable in a temperate climate like Tokyo. The water in Izu has always warmer than you’d perhaps expect due to the Kuroshio, but until recently winter diving around Izu meant cold water. I remember asking around a few years ago, and there was still no sign of this happening in East Izu. Even then it was obvious that temperatures hadn’t dropped below 13C for a few years. Will have to ask again…

Before getting all pragmatic and looking for the upside in all this, remember that the warming further south is going to lead to the bleaching (and extinction) of ancient (and vast swathes) reefs, and a tiny number of the untold species will be capable of surviving a relocation. In addition, the species in the previously temperate waters of Izu that relied on the cold temperatures for food sources / signals / timing will be similarly disrupted.

Some of my dive guides friends at IOP have daily temperature records going back tens of years. It would be really interesting to get them plotted / analysed. Dive logs as the next data set?


Wise words...

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