Trends Pt. II

The nice thing about ignorance is that if you’re unhappy about one state you can be happy about the opposite! The graph has been updated and shows a second decline:

If i was an optimistic person(…) i’d surmise that what we saw at the start of the week was in fact a new quake event and we are now experiencing the associated aftershocks. Given that the data previously indicated to me that we might have been building up to a new event, that seems like the only logical conclusion.

Ah, hopefully someone will recognise the shocking ignorance in these couple of posts and put me out of my misery!

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3 thoughts on “Trends Pt. II

  1. One thing I know about earthquake patterns is there’s a rule of thumb that says an earthquake will have an aftershock that’s about one magnitude lower. So perhaps that’s what the recent big one was.

    But then consider what happened in Christchurch. The non-fatal earthquake in September last year ended up triggering a totally different (previously unknown) faultline which was the horrible one that caused devastation in February.

    I hope things calm down. I hate the even minor tremors Wellington gets, and I don’t imagine it’s any less shitty in Tokyo.

    • Looking at that scatter i’d say there had already been a good couple of that size already.

      It seems more likely to me that we’re seeing stress transferred to other part of the fault, other faults, and these recent larger quakes are separate events. All of which makes me want to be reassured… again.

      • That sounds most plausible to me, not that my almost complete ignorance of plate tectonics/fault dynamics qualify my opinion as worth anything.

        I guess question for me is, have the shifts put stress on faults that haven’t yet released, thus bringing forward the next major event.

        All way over my head.

Wise words...

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