Trends Pt. II

The nice thing about ignorance is that if you’re unhappy about one state you can be happy about the opposite! The graph has been updated and shows a second decline:

If i was an optimistic person(…) i’d surmise that what we saw at the start of the week was in fact a new quake event and we are now experiencing the associated aftershocks. Given that the data previously indicated to me that we might have been building up to a new event, that seems like the only logical conclusion.

Ah, hopefully someone will recognise the shocking ignorance in these couple of posts and put me out of my misery!


Couple of questions:

1. how good a fit is that curve (chi squared, etc.)?

2. what does it mean that the intensity of the quakes is once again increasing?

Maybe it’s just a point of definition, but it doesn’t seem good that our after shocks are not following the Gutenberg-Richter law. At some point you’d have to start to ask when yesterdays and today aftershocks become tomorrows pre-shocks? Maybe that isn’t a reasonable question. However, over the period of the last ten days it has certainly felt like a decline in activity, but things have really picked up in the last 48 hours.

Predicting seismic activity is still more of an art than a science, but it would be interesting to hear what seismologists are making of this ongoing event.