Doubt that’s a choice we’ll have to make…
As feared, stocks decline and bond yields rise, aka. a bond dislocation. <gulp>
It has begun. Today equities fell significantly and the “safe haven” bid was not large enough to overcome a deluge of selling. Yields rose. Again. This is not likely to be an isolated incident. This while happen with greater frequency and increasingly disruptive consequences.
Hmm. I’m still not convinced. There was a huge auction of 7 year bonds today, which might have distorted the market. For sure there is a lot of stress in the bond markets due to amazing volume of government debt… but one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and all that.
The Financial Ninja (also linked via the image above) seems to have his eye on the ball:
Giddy talk of “green shoots” has completely drowned out a more sober and rational assessment of the global situation. Random statistical noise in various minor economic indicators have over the past two months resulted in wild exclamations of “the worst is definitely over”.
It most certainly is not.
Yet another blog worth following as we mosey along in this wicker basket… can you smell sulphur? Perhaps it’s just me.
Update: I was wrong about the 7 year auction being yesterday, it was today. Yesterday was an auction of 2 and 5 years. The 7 year auction went off smoothly. More evidence for continued randomness rather than being at the point of systemic collapse. In theory the short end of the bond market should be more resilient than the long end… patience!