More Reinhardt Redux

Didn’t have time to do this during the week. I wanted to look at what actually happened during the week of 2/9. Let’s imagine that you’d bet money that the DJI would be lower at the end of the week of the 9th than at the start, ie. you’d shorted the Dow based on Reinhardt’s prediction.

DJI 2/8 - 2/20

That graph (thieved from Yahoo!) pretty much tells the story. The average was down just shy of 10%, two weeks after the prediction. I see only two days when it moved up, and those are very slight.

This is no way is meant as a validation of his future predictions, but does at least go to show that it’s a hard environment in which to be too gloomy.

On the subject of which, there is speculation that the amount of bad debt in the european banking system is as much as €18 Trillion. That’s an astonishing large number. Just astonishing. The entire GDP of the european union is €12 Trillion… and i think you can expect that to be falling rather rapidly in the immediate future.

If i was a european banker i’d be getting pretty nervous about my personal safety right about now…


Wise words...

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