On the Wall

After the usual dramatics (the styrene boards wouldn’t stick to the wall; one fell down while i was out getting padded tape… which then needed trimming, and forced me to re-order the shots) the exhibition is on the wall at Place M. I should probably mail them about fixing the link to my photograph on the front page.

Here’s hoping that they stay stuck to the wall until everyone gets to see them…

I’ll be there on Thursday from around 3pm, and most of Saturday and Sunday afternoon. The afternoon party has become an evening thing, from 6:30pm until they throw us out. It’s not clear to me how or why the time changed, but this appears to be the final answer.

Watanabe-san made the above poster for me. It’s not actually part of the show. Mostly because i couldn’t get it clean enough. Looks like it was used to clean the house! Feel free to grab it and re-blog it. <hint hint>

Contagion Coming to Tokyo?

I don’t think so, at least not yet…

The FT seems to agree, and almost manage to summarise:

But talk of a massive JGB bubble – let alone default – is farfetched. Certainly, Japan is not in the rudest of fiscal health. The government has spent to keep its economy going. That, combined with falling tax revenues, has pushed the country’s gross debt towards 200 per cent of gross domestic product. With an ageing population, this alarming figure could get worse. So the 10-year JGB yield, at about 1.3 per cent, looks low. What do the markets think they know?

One should be wary about explaining away such aberrations. Yet by several criteria, Japan is different. First, gross debt levels are misleading. Japan’s debt, after netting off the state’s own holdings, is less than 100 per cent of GDP. Second, the cost of servicing its debt is low, at roughly 1.3 per cent of GDP. That compares with 1.8 per cent in the US, 2.3 per cent in the UK and 5.3 per cent in Italy. Third, Japan has fiscal wiggle room: sales tax is just 5 per cent. Fourth, 95 per cent of Japan’s debt is domestically owned. Fickle foreigners have almost no sway. Indeed, Japan’s problem is still an excess of savings. Banks are awash with deposits that they need to place somewhere. For some time yet, the government will not find it hard to secure buyers for JGBs. Japan’s debt problem will be worked out in the family.

[Emphasis mine.]

No denying that there are a lot of longer term, structural, problems, but imminent collapse of the JGB just doesn’t seem likely. If japan had current account deficit, high personal debt, high taxes, and was engaged in protracted overseas military campaigns, then i’d be worried… now.

New Magnesium Post: Izu Tripping

My second piece for Mg is now live. Brett dreamed up some text for me. He’s a very talented chap. The words flow out of him like honey slides… obscure reference for the day.

It has been good having another outlet for these photographs. Flickr is oriented toward the individual shot, and when you work on a series, it tends to get lost in the noise. This is especially true, if, like me, it sometimes takes a couple of years to feel that something is finished!

The shots in that piece were shot over a period of a year and a half. They’re all taken through train windows when going or returning from diving. Izu looks rather neglected these days, like an English seaside town, but with lush vegetation, torrential rain, and bamboo. Even though i obviously don’t remember it when it was a series of flourishing hotspring resorts, it evokes a feeling of nostalgia. Nostalgia, which is obviously fake, and therefore manufactured, or ‘falsely recovered’. If you know Izu, i hope it does something for you…

And, yes, the day that it hammered down with rain lead to some really memorable diving!

Fragments of Tokyo Exhibition

My first photography exhibition is opening next week, Monday, 8th of February, and is up until Sunday, the 14th.

We are having a little soiree on Thursday afternoon (what is a soiree in the afternoon called?), the 11th. It’s a national holiday (建国記念日 – founding of the nation day) so hopefully a few people will be able to drop by, have a glass of wine, and a chat. The gallery (Place M) is open from 1pm, but that’s not a particularly civilised time to start drinking… so how about 3pm? Oh, and don’t get your hopes up, we’re not – so there won’t be cases of wine!

I’m putting up nine pictures… or maybe ten… or eight… won’t really know until i see them on the wall. It has been quite the experience getting from negatives to getting A2 prints hung on a wall. Along the way i’ve lost a little sleep, worried and drunk too much, and acquired a printer. Here’s hoping that it’ll be easier next time… assuming there is a “next time”.

Edit: also, this, which Watanabe-san kindly made as banner ad, but we don’t have anywhere to use it:

It’s great having talented friends.

Worth

every penny!

Sun / Oracle

Feels like an odd marriage. While at Sun, Oracle was one of the more difficult partners with which i had to deal. Easier than IBM, but not exactly kindred spirits. Culturally they were poles apart. It will be really interesting to see what happens now that they are “one”.

The Sun Alumni mailing list has been hilarious for the last couple of days. no doubt some of the stories should never have been told… but i’m glad they were. Happy times. Feeling nostalgic for Silicon Valley days…

Another Yen / Dollar Theory

There is a quite a lot of talk about the dollar carry trade. In essence this means that dollars are being used to buy assets (other currencies) with higher yields. This is, in effect, selling the dollar. This selling causes the value of the dollar to fall relative to the currency being bought. (I’m not sure if that part is right. It doesn’t seem right that selling the dollar and buying another asset would cause the value of the dollar to fall against all other currencies, so i’m assuming…)

If the yields for holding dollar denominated assets rise (stock market indexes, or bond yields, increase) the non-dollar assets are sold to buy these now higher yielding assets. The value of the dollar rises relative to the currency being sold. (similar caveat to above)

As the dollar carry trade is currently considered to be huge (larger than the yen carry trade that proceeded it!) the effect on the value of the dollar is large. However, the stock markets in the US have been rising for some nine (plus) months, which must temper some of the possible decline in the dollar. There are also different classes of risk, meaning that some of the money flowing around might consider the equity markets too risky, and would flow into government bonds (with higher yields than US treasuries). In all likelihood, given the general trend of massive public sector borrowing, there are lots of high yielding bonds out there to buy. If holding these bonds becomes too risky, the money will flow out again, back to lower yielding, but presumably safer assets (US Treasuries, for example).

Assuming that there is some kernel of truth in the above, it makes sense that the Yen is remaining stubbornly strong against the dollar, even while everyone and their dog is predicting japanese sovereign default. Yields on japanese government debt are low (because the debt is held in Japan …that’s not really an answer, but let us just say that it is possible for the MOF to borrow cheaply, just “because”) and other yen denominated assets are not attractive (deflation; would you want to buy a shrinking pie?!) Therefore, very few of the dollars that were sold resulted in yen being bought. And conversely, as these carry trades unwind, very little yen is being sold…

Having written all that down, i’m not convinced… all it says to me is that the yen is sort of in a no-mans-land, languishing in the doldrums, while the action happens elsewhere. Perhaps it’s just that with a positive trade balance, companies are constantly having to buy yen to repatriate revenue.

Bridging

Posting these to motivate me to try again, but with a different point of focus. Infinity isn’t working.

Buried

a sonorous bell tolls
waivering winter light
bones lie at rest

Magnesium & Exhibition: Fragments of Tokyo

It has been a busy couple of weeks. What a way to start the year…

Along with everything else, a bunch of very determined friends have opened a photography agency.

It’s not entirely clear what eventual form it will assume, but right now it’s a driven bunch of people seeing how far they can push a loosely associated group in the direction of being serious about photography.

The mix is also interesting. Inevitably there is a dichotomy (trichotomy?) of those who are journalist / commerical, and those who see it as an artistic endeavour. I seem to fall on the “artistic” side of the divide, but will do what i can to support those who want to try to make it their living.

My first contribution to the site is a bit of shameless self-promotion. Next month, along with three others, i’ll be doing my first exhibition. It’s a little bit nerve wracking, but i’m determined to make the best of it… and even though recently everything has been a touch stressful, pulling it all together has actually been a fun distraction.

If you’re in Tokyo for the week of the 8th of February, please drop in and take a look. No doubt we’ll arrange to get everyone together on one afternoon in the final weekend, probably the 13th. More on that when plans are made.